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10,000 simulations predict PSG as Club World Cup favourites

10. June 2025
(foto: FIFA)
Opta’s supercomputer gives PSG an 18.5% chance of winning the 2025 Club World Cup, ahead of Manchester City, Bayern, Inter and Real Madrid.

According to Opta's supercomputer, Paris Saint-Germain are the top favourites to win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, with a probability of 18.5%. The French champions will be making their debut in the tournament and are seen as the team to beat, based on data-driven simulations.

PSG have been drawn into a tough group alongside Atlético Madrid, Botafogo, and Seattle Sounders. Their campaign kicks off on June 15 with a clash against Atlético, the other European side in the group. Opta’s simulations suggest that PSG advance to the round of 16 in over 90% of cases.

Trailing just behind PSG in Opta’s rankings is Manchester City with a 17.8% chance, followed by Bayern Munich (12.8%), Inter Milan (12.3%) and Real Madrid (9.8%).

On the other end of the spectrum, South American giants Palmeiras and Flamengo have each been given only a 0.3% chance of winning the title.

The predictions are based on over 10,000 tournament simulations run through Opta’s predictive model, which uses team strength, historical performance and current form as core variables.

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