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Supercomputer backs Arsenal to edge City in final-day thriller

5. May 2026
Arsenal, Manchester City (foto: Getty Images)
A supercomputer predicts Arsenal will beat Manchester City to the Premier League title on goal difference, with just one goal separating the two sides.

The Premier League title race could come down to the finest possible margin, with a supercomputer predicting Arsenal will beat Manchester City by just one goal.

Manchester City lost ground after a chaotic 3-3 draw with Everton, a result that may prove decisive with only four matches left.

Jeremy Doku gave City the lead before half-time, but goals from Thierno Barry and Jake O'Brien turned the game around.

Barry added another late on, before Erling Haaland responded immediately. In the final seconds, Doku rescued a point with a curling strike.

Despite the late equaliser, City now trail Arsenal, who hold a five-point lead with one extra game played.

Pep Guardiola admitted the situation has changed, with City no longer controlling their own fate.

According to a simulation by FindSisterSites, both teams will finish on 83 points, but Arsenal will take the title with a goal difference of +45, compared to City’s +44.

The prediction assumes Arsenal win two and draw one of their remaining matches, while City win all four of theirs.

Behind them, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Aston Villa are expected to secure Champions League places.

Brentford, Bournemouth, and Everton are tipped to qualify for European competition.

At the bottom, Tottenham are predicted to survive by a margin of three points, while West Ham face relegation to the Championship.

If the model proves correct, the title race will deliver one of the tightest finishes in Premier League history.

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