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What can we expect from Denmark? What are their strengths and weaknesses?
Denmark reached the semifinals in the last
European Championship three years ago, where they were narrowly defeated by Harry Kane's goal after a rebound from a penalty. They qualified for the World Cup in Qatar in 2022 but didn't win a single match, finishing at the bottom of their group. In the Euro 2024 qualifiers, they topped their group, ahead of Slovenia. With high expectations in a tough group with England, Serbia, and Slovenia, advancing to the quarterfinals would be considered a success for "De Rød-Hvide" (The Red and Whites).
Who is Kasper Hjulmand and How Does He Play?
Kasper Hjulmand has successfully led the Danish national team to three major tournaments during his tenure. His most notable achievement was the semifinal at Euro 2020, where his leadership and communication with the players stood out, especially after the dramatic incident involving Christian Eriksen, who suffered a cardiac arrest on the field.
In recent qualifiers, Hjulmand experimented with two different tactical formations, 3-5-2 and 4-3-3, with 3-5-2 seeming more suitable due to the available players. Denmark boasts a stable team with experienced players who enjoy his trust and have been key contributors in major tournaments. Before finalizing the squad, Hjulmand already had most of his lineup in mind, which contributed to the team's stability and positive atmosphere.
However, there's a slight disconnect between expectations and the mood inside and outside the team. Public opinion in Denmark shows some fatigue due to the coach's constant reliance on experienced players. Some believe that incorporating younger players could inject more energy instead of always relying on "old faces." The Danish team that impressed at the previous European Championship likely reached its absolute peak back then. Now, the team is older and less talented compared to other teams. Nonetheless, the general belief is that Denmark should successfully advance from the group stage.
Denmark's Strength in Possession and Progressive Passing
The Danish national team demonstrated exceptional possession ability in the qualifiers for the upcoming tournament in Germany, averaging 66.16% possession. However, they benefited from playing against teams that mostly employed low defensive blocks and passive defense. Against teams like England or Serbia, or in the knockout stages, it will be different. They have technically gifted players, particularly in midfield, who break defensive lines and subsequently advance up the field.
Denmark averaged 83.9 progressive passes per 90 minutes, ranking among the top teams in the qualifiers. Progressive passes are crucial for breaking through the opponent's defensive lines, creating opportunities for attack.
Their attacking style is quite versatile. Against "weaker" teams, Denmark focuses on maintaining possession, controlling the game, while retaining elements of the traditional Scandinavian style of play. When playing with three or five defenders, they exploit the width of the field, with highly mobile and active full-backs creating numerical superiority. These players constantly join attacks, bypass opponents, and provide additional passing and crossing options into the opponent's penalty area. Physically imposing strikers play a significant role in this setup. When playing in a 4-3-3 formation, they are more patient and attack through the middle with Eriksen as the main playmaker.
Today, Denmark is likely to play with three defenders, allowing them to effectively switch the ball from one side of the field to the other. Two midfielders will likely be positioned for easier transitions, while a four-man attacking line will pressure our backline, with full-backs likely positioned quite high. Their most creative player, Eriksen, will focus on moving into spaces between our defensive and midfield lines, where he usually has complete freedom in the game.
Denmark's Aggressive Defense Without the Ball
In the defensive phase, Denmark focuses on intense pressing and quickly regaining possession. Although they allow the opponent an average of 8.04 seconds of possession, it would make more sense for Denmark to drop their defensive line into a middle block against stronger teams. This approach is expected in matches against England and partly against Serbia. However, it's challenging to assess their actual defensive strength, given that they played against five relatively average attacking teams in the qualifiers, relying mainly on quick transitions.
Against Slovenia, a high-intensity press is expected, with Denmark averaging 20.6 ball recoveries in the attacking third. Therefore, calmness, confidence, and mobility will be crucial for Slovenia.
On the other hand, Denmark's high-intensity pressing can leave their backline quite open, which we could exploit with our direct style of play. Exploiting their effective progressive passing tactics could also be a key factor for our team.
Defensively, they limited opponents to only 0.49 xG (excluding penalties) per match in the qualifiers, the third-lowest result after Portugal (0.4) and England (0.43), who are among the favorites to win this year's European Championship.
The so-called "rest defense" has become deeply ingrained in Denmark's style of play, as many teams focus on counterattacks as the primary way to play against them. This means they pay a lot of attention to their defensive positioning while in possession. This approach often involves a 3-2 setup: two midfielders positioned just ahead of the backline, allowing full-backs more time to transition from attack to defense. It also ensures numerical superiority in the central areas of the field.
Denmark's Weakness on Set-Pieces
In the qualifiers, they allowed opponents the second-highest number of shots from set-pieces, highlighting a potential defensive weakness in dealing with set-pieces. On the other hand, they have excelled in creativity and diversity in attacking set-pieces in recent years - Eriksen being the primary set-piece taker, with physically tall and strong center-backs and forwards as key targets for their set plays. In the qualifiers, they averaged 8.2 corners per match. They also scored from a corner in their last friendly match against Sweden.
Eriksen remains the main player, but his club form is somewhat concerning. One of the team's positive surprises could be Victor Kristiansen, who is highly effective in breaking down the left side and contributing to passes in the attacking third, while also understanding his defensive responsibilities well. Alexander Bah, who plays on the opposite side, could have a similar impact. He is currently the second choice but based on recent matches, he could replace Joakim Mæhle in the starting lineup. Potential over-reliance on Rasmus Højlund could also be a potential weakness, especially when Denmark controls the game against teams in a low defensive block.
Denmark also lacks a distinct ability to change the game when trailing, which could be a problem if the opponents score first.
Their last significant match in the qualifiers was against Slovenia, where they won and secured qualification for the tournament in Germany. In that match, we must acknowledge that the Danes were very impressive - dominating possession, pressing intensely up front, and regularly attacking.
Conclusion:
Slovenia needs to exploit Denmark's set-piece weaknesses and their high pressing, which could leave spaces open for quick counterattacks. Benjamin Sesko's pace and direct play could be crucial in creating scoring opportunities. Additionally, staying calm and composed under Denmark's high press will be vital for Slovenia to secure a positive result.
Author: Sanel Konjević